1. Event Overview: Overnight, the World's Oil Artery Came to a Near Standstill
According to shipping data from analytics firm Kpler, the Strait of Hormuz experienced its most severe traffic contraction since the outbreak of the conflict during the first weekend of October 2026. Only five commodity vessels transited the strait on Saturday (October 3), and no ship transits were recorded at all on Sunday (October 4), compared with 31 transits the previous weekend. On Tuesday (October 6), traffic fell further to seven vessels, the lowest level since July 23. This means the Strait of Hormuz - which once carried roughly 20% of the world's daily oil supply - is sliding from a "high-risk passage" toward a state of de facto closure.
2. Key Data: From Over a Hundred Ships a Day to Single Digits, Traffic Down More Than 90%
According to Kpler, more than 100 vessels a day used to transit the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict. Now, only five vessels crossed the strait in total over Saturday and Sunday, and Tuesday's seven transits are merely a fraction of pre-war levels. Even more striking is the change in crude volumes: crude crossing the strait fell 27% from the previous week's wartime high, to at least 10.1 million barrels per day. Reports from Guangming Daily indicate that average daily crude flows through the strait have dropped from roughly 12 million barrels before the war to under 2 million barrels, with some days seeing only two commercial vessels transit. On certain days, the number of ships passing through the strait has fallen even below levels recorded during the 2006 Lebanon war, prompting analysts to describe the situation as a "historic low."
3. Background: A Double Squeeze of Escalating Attacks and Stalled Negotiations
The direct cause of the traffic collapse is the sharp escalation in attacks. On October 1, the Kuwait-flagged VLCC "Kazimah III" (317,250 dwt) was struck by an unidentified projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz and caught fire; the crew was reported safe, but the incident once again confirmed the strait's high-risk nature. According to Xinhua reports, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacked seven tankers in the first five days of October - at least one per day on average - including two Kuwaiti tankers and three UAE tankers. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) maintains the threat level in the Strait of Hormuz at "SEVERE," explicitly stating that deliberate hostile action is highly likely under current conditions. Meanwhile, US-Iran negotiations remain deadlocked. Iran's proposal to reopen the strait within seven days has not progressed because the US has not eased military pressure, and Iran's president has publicly declared the country to be in a state of "full-scale war."
4. "Dark Sailing" Prevails: The Real Traffic Volume May Be Even Lower
What is even more concerning is that public transit data may underestimate the severity of the situation - or overstate the market's controllability. A growing number of tankers are choosing to sail "dark," switching off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) to avoid being tracked and targeted. Kpler data shows that among the five vessels that transited on Saturday were an empty VLCC with its AIS switched off and an Indian-flagged vessel. Monitoring data from Windward also shows that while there were 55 AIS-visible transits between September 16 and 23, crude exports continued mainly through the southern corridor, with roughly two-thirds of cargoes moved via ship-to-ship (STS) transfers - a method that further reduces traceability. The IRGC, meanwhile, has stated it will soon blockade "illegal" routes through the Strait of Hormuz - meaning any transit not sanctioned by Tehran could become a target. With AIS switched off, STS transfers prevalent, and the threat level at "SEVERE," the transparency of global energy trade is deteriorating sharply.
5. Market Chain Reactions: Freight, Insurance and Shipping Costs Soar Across the Board
The collapse in transits has rapidly rippled through every corner of the shipping market. In tanker freight, voyage charter rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) have surged to USD 77 million, with daily rates reaching an "unprecedented" USD 1.3 million - more than 40 times pre-crisis levels. In insurance, war-risk premiums for Gulf transits have soared to between 3% and 10% of hull value, with owners' insurance costs now exceeding fuel costs. For container shipping, carriers such as Maersk have imposed an emergency surcharge of USD 1,000 per container transiting the Strait of Hormuz, covering insurance premiums and crew risk compensation. These costs will ultimately be passed through to the prices of goods in global trade, further intensifying inflationary pressure.
6. Global Impact: A Deep Restructuring of Energy, Supply Chains and Trade Patterns
The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz is reshaping the global energy and trade landscape. On the energy front, Middle East crude exports briefly recovered to roughly 98% of pre-war levels (about 17.5 million barrels per day), but this was achieved through unconventional means such as rerouting, STS transfers, and "dark" sailing - methods whose sustainability and safety remain questionable. On the supply chain front, roughly 30% of global container traffic passes through Middle Eastern waters. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea combined with Iran's blockade at Hormuz create a "double strait squeeze," forcing more carriers to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, adding roughly 10 to 14 days to voyages and increasing fuel costs by about 30%. On the trade front, Saudi Aramco has widened its November price discount for Asian buyers to the largest in six years (USD 5 per barrel below the benchmark), seeking to defend market share amid constrained export routes - signaling that the flows of global energy trade are undergoing profound structural adjustment.
7. Outlook: Risk Premiums Will Persist for the Long Term
In the near term, the recovery of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz depends on two variables: whether the US and Iran can reach a substantive agreement on ceasefire and reopening the strait, and whether the IRGC will stop attacking transiting tankers. Given the current situation of "stalled negotiations and ongoing attacks," traffic is unlikely to return to pre-war levels anytime soon, and shipping companies, insurers, and traders will all face elevated risk premiums for the long haul. In the medium term, this crisis is accelerating the "de-Hormuz-ization" of global supply chains: from the "Zero-Hormuz Strategy" being advanced by sovereign funds such as BlackRock and Temasek, to Gulf states accelerating the construction of pipelines and alternative ports that bypass the strait, to China and Europe increasing investment in alternative energy transport corridors through Central Asia and Africa - the global layout of energy and logistics infrastructure is being profoundly rewritten by this crisis. For companies engaged in international logistics, this presents both a significant cost challenge and a structural opportunity arising from route realignment.
Compiled based on public data from Kpler, UKMTO, Xinhua, Guangming Daily, Windward and other sources. For reference only, not investment advice.
